International affairs professional Stephen Fevrier has warned that Saint Lucia must act decisively to reform its Citizenship by Investment Programme or risk being drawn into looming United States visa sanctions already impacting parts of the Eastern Caribbean.
He stressed that the restrictions now affecting Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and others are not sudden policy shifts, but rather the culmination of a security agenda that Washington has been signalling since the start of the Trump Administration.
“From its very first day, the Trump Administration signalled its intention to impose visa restrictions on countries that do not comply with US security requirements,” Fevrier said.
He pointed to January 20, 2025, when President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14161, titled Protecting the United States From Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats. The order, Fevrier explained, made clear that Washington intended to tighten border controls and enforce stricter immigration and national security standards.
“Failing compliance, visa restrictions ranging from partial to full bans would be imposed on non-compliant governments,” he said.
Although the executive order did not spell out exactly how the policy would be enforced, Fevrier noted that a March 14 report by The New York Times revealed a draft US watch list placing Saint Lucia in a “yellow” category. Countries in that group were effectively put on notice and given 60 days to come into compliance.
“Saint Lucia was not immediately sanctioned, but we were certainly not in the clear,” Fevrier cautioned.
On June 4, the White House issued Proclamation 10949, which introduced the first round of bans. Twelve countries were fully banned and seven were partially restricted. Saint Lucia was not named, but Fevrier said that optimism was short-lived.
“A few days later, credible media outlets confirmed the existence of a State Department cable sent to 36 countries, including Saint Lucia, warning that full or partial travel bans would be imposed if security benchmarks were not met,” he explained.
By December, those warnings became concrete action. A new White House proclamation issued on December 16 cited national security risks, government fraud, poor passport security, and weak oversight of citizenship by investment programmes as justification for further restrictions. Three days later, the US State Department announced that visa issuance would be partially suspended for nationals of 19 countries beginning January 1, 2026, including Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica.
While Saint Lucia was again spared, Fevrier warned that the country remains vulnerable, largely because of its Citizenship by Investment Programme.
“The core concern for Washington is CBI programmes without a residency requirement, which pose challenges for screening and vetting purposes,” he said.
He noted that the US government has explicitly warned that such programmes create opportunities for individuals to evade travel restrictions by acquiring a second citizenship.
“A foreign national from a restricted country could purchase citizenship from a second country, obtain a passport, and then apply for a US visa, effectively bypassing the original restriction,” Fevrier said, referencing the language of the US proclamation.
According to Fevrier, US law enforcement agencies have also found that CBI programmes have historically been susceptible to abuse, including identity concealment and the circumvention of financial controls.
“Regrettably, Saint Lucia and other OECS states with CBI programmes that do not require residency fall squarely into the category of jurisdictions now under heightened scrutiny,” he said.
The implications extend well beyond diplomacy. Fevrier said investor confidence in Saint Lucia’s CIP is already being affected by growing international unease.
“In practical terms, if restrictions are imposed, there will be knock-on effects across the economy,” he warned.
He said air access to the United States, Saint Lucia’s largest tourism market, would be negatively affected, with consequences for hotels, airlines, and related services. Students and athletes could face travel barriers, family visits would become more difficult, and access to specialised medical care in the US could be denied.
“We are already receiving reports that visa applications by Saint Lucian nationals, including students, are quietly being declined, even for individuals who previously held visas without issue,” Fevrier said.
While some have argued that the bans are politically motivated, Fevrier rejected that characterisation.
“These measures are mainly security-related,” he said. “They are also tied to a more assertive foreign policy posture outlined in the 2025 US National Security Strategy, which identifies uncontrolled immigration as a central national security threat.”
Regionally, Saint Lucia is not alone. Fevrier said all OECS countries operating similar CBI programmes face increased scrutiny heading into 2026.
“Any OECS country assessed as posing a risk to US national security through its CIP or CBI programme is likely to face sanctions,” he said.
He also warned that visa restrictions could become one of the most volatile issues in Caribbean-US relations, alongside Haiti, Venezuela, Cuban medical cooperation, transnational crime, trade preferences, and climate change.
“Given the depth of tourism, investment and diaspora ties between the Caribbean and the United States, visa restrictions could prove to be one of the most complicated and economically damaging flashpoints,” Fevrier said.
To avoid that outcome, he argued that Saint Lucia must act decisively. Key steps include establishing a regional CBI regulator, enhancing due diligence, introducing mandatory biometric data collection, strengthening transparency, setting a regional minimum investment threshold, and critically, introducing a residency requirement.
“These efforts must be pursued within a reoriented foreign policy framework and through deeper diplomatic engagement with Washington,” he said.
While there may eventually be room for negotiation, Fevrier cautioned against complacency.
“It is premature to assume there will be flexibility once restrictions are imposed,” he said. “Saint Lucia is not yet under formal sanctions, but the window for meaningful action is narrowing.”
Reflecting on the broader lesson, Fevrier said the warning signs were visible early on.
“Washington signalled its concerns from the start of the Trump Administration,” he said. “The key question now is whether those lessons have finally been learned.”
